A Path-Changing Decision-Making Method
Method 1 of 4
I have a love-hate relationship with frameworks. I think they force “black and white” thinking and don’t allow for more creative problem solving in the gray.
I worked in Strategy at Google, and I spent half my time on the team responsible for making billion-dollar decisions. I learned a lot about how large corporations decide where to invest their resources. And, no surprise, most leaders rely on frameworks (a majority are ex-MBB - McKinsey, Bain, BCG - consultants). A lot of frameworks end up as decoration, something to put in a deck to legitimize a decision made in the elevator between 2 leaders.
But there are some frameworks that I, dare I say, like. The 2x2 is one of them. I’ll explain why, using my decision to quit Google as an example. If you’re a paid subscriber, I’ve included a template at the end plus an exercise to help you think through your own decision.
I wrote a few weeks ago about the 4 things well-made decisions have in common: beliefs, consideration, prioritization, commitment. This is the first deep-dive in that series.
What a 2x2 actually is
Two axes. Four boxes. That’s it. You pick the two dimensions that matter MOST for this decision, make each one an axis, and place your options in the grid.
The whole method lives or dies on one move that’s easy to skip: choosing the axes. The axes are your beliefs, turned into something you can measure your options against. For example, when I was deciding whether to leave Google, the axes were not “salary” and “title.” Instead, fulfillment and time freedom.
That’s why this is Method #1 in the series. It puts the beliefs conversation before the options conversation. Get the axes right and the grid does most of the deciding. Get them wrong and the grid will confirm what you’re biasing towards or against based on fear or uncertainty.
When to use a 2x2
The 2x2 isn’t the right tool for every decision, and knowing when to reach for it is half the skill.
If you have two or three options and one dimension/criterion that clearly matters most, you don’t need a 2x2. Rank them in a table and go. The 2x2 earns its place when the opposite is true:
too many considerations to hold in your head at once
options that resist direct comparison (a job offer, a move, a year off)
and when the options carry different tradeoffs, so comparing them feels like comparing apples to oranges
The above is true for most big personal decisions. So, 2x2s are often a big help for life choices.
The other reason to use it is less about the decision and more about you. A list is easy to nudge with subconscious bias. You can reorder a pros-and-cons list all evening until it agrees with what you already wanted. A grid is harder to negotiate with. When you have to place every option against the same two axes, including the option you’re quietly rooting for, the wishful thinking becomes visible on the page.
A big decision I wish I used the 2x2 for
I once picked from a predetermined set of options. I had two offers out of business school: Google or Adobe. If I’d put that decision on a 2x2 with honest axes, fit would have been one of them, and the company that actually saw me for me (Adobe) would have been in the top-right box instead of the rejection pile. I didn’t run the 2x2. I picked the shiniest mold. It took me 4.5 years to work my way back from that one.
The trap to avoid
The most common mistake is two axes that are secretly measuring the same thing. Salary and prestige usually move together; that’s one axis, not two. The second most common is keeping a third dimension in your head while pretending the grid still works. If you’re doing that, the hidden dimension is probably one of your real axes. Redraw with it. An example of this is if a feeling matters to you, like wanting low stress, to feel inspired, freedom. A feeling can be an axis, but just make sure it’s measurable (can you actually rank an option as low, medium, or high inspiration?).
Once you’ve picked your axes, draw the grid, label your x and y axes with your criteria, then plot your options as low, medium, or high against each of those criteria. The top right box is usually your winner.
If you have more than two in the top right, you may need to plot those against another set of criteria. Or, you may use one of the next frameworks I’ll share: Risks and Opportunities (Rs & Os).